Kopitiam Talk & Intellectual Discourse: Tracking an IPO - The Case for MSM ..

(c) ArifinLatif Consulting, 12jul11, 8:31am

Kopitiam Talk & Intellectual Discourse: 

Tracking an IPO - The Case for MSM

=> Bias reversal signals a potential downturn on 11 July 2011!

MSM-12jul11,advGET

 ==========

(c) ArifinLatif Consulting, 12jul11, 7:55am
 

How to Track a New IPO: The Case for MSM

=> Too early/insufficient data to get accurate signals???

=> Stochastics trending downwards - from 69 to 68.8, now at 55.9
=> Price oscillator....? insufficient data to invoke a calculation! 

My ANALYSES:

1. Stochastics => on the high side, from 69 down to 68.8 and now
at 55.9 (trending downwards!).
2. Mini EWA (Elliot Wave Analysis) => waves 1, 2, 3 completed... expect wave 4 to unfold.
3. Price reversals timing => fits into 2,3 and 8-day fibonacci sequence!
4. Wilder's Swing index => signals a 'short sell' Friday, 8/7!
5. Bill William's Profitunity Analysis => fake bars (last 2 days - categorised as 'slightly dangerous'!)
6. Japanese candlesticks => Inverted hammer on 7/7 + Three black candles appearing on 11/7!!!
 

My PROGNOSIS:

Take profits first... re-enter when mini wave 4 unfolds. 

Happy trading guys & gals! 

Salam.

MSM-12jul11,MetaStock11

Kopitiam Talk & Intellectual Discourse: Tracking an IPO - The Case for MSM

(c) ArifinLatif Consulting, 11jul11, 8:27am

Kopitiam Talk & Intellectual Discourse: 

Tracking an IPO - The Case for MSM

An interesting IPO and a startling debut for MSM (Malaysian Sugar Manufacturing)... bought over from Robert Kuok's stable of companies... kudos for FELDA Berhad. Good marks for the Govt's ETP with respect to the capital market masterplan!

If you are a long term investor, just lock up your MSM shares and move on looking for similar IPOs. Fundamentally, just follow the PER and/or the perceived multiples of its earnings ~ yes just trust the financial analyst's evaluation.

But if you wish to trade, or trade-and-invest, then technical analysis can offer some pointers.... after 9 days of up, up and away scenario chances are profit taking will appear. When? It is now... with stochastics 'cutting from above' over the 80% line! 

From a mini EWA, I saw a mini wave 1 (day 2), mini wave 2 (day 3, touching 2.618x level) and a potential mini wave 3 (day 8)... yes a 2-3-8 fibonacci sequence in play?  

My Take >> Take profits first and re-enter later!

MSM-11jul11,advGET

==========

(c) ArifinLatif Consulting, 11jul11, 8:40am

How to Track a New IPO: The Case for MSM

Too early (not enough data) to get accurate pointers! Nevertheless, here are some of my analyses:

1. Stochastics on the high side, down from >80 to now at 68.8 (trending downwards!).
2. My own mini Elliot Wave Analysis (EWA) shows a mini wave 1, 2 and 3 completed...so  next move, a possible mini wave 4 (correction wave).
3. Wilder's Swing index signals a 'short sell' there last Friday!

My prognosis>> take profits first and re-enter when mini wave 4 unfolds. Happy trading guys & gals! 

Salam.

MSM-11jul11,MetaStock11