Kopitiam Talk & Intellectual Discourse: Tracking an IPO - The Case for MSM

(c) ArifinLatif Consulting, 11jul11, 8:27am

Kopitiam Talk & Intellectual Discourse: 

Tracking an IPO - The Case for MSM

An interesting IPO and a startling debut for MSM (Malaysian Sugar Manufacturing)... bought over from Robert Kuok's stable of companies... kudos for FELDA Berhad. Good marks for the Govt's ETP with respect to the capital market masterplan!

If you are a long term investor, just lock up your MSM shares and move on looking for similar IPOs. Fundamentally, just follow the PER and/or the perceived multiples of its earnings ~ yes just trust the financial analyst's evaluation.

But if you wish to trade, or trade-and-invest, then technical analysis can offer some pointers.... after 9 days of up, up and away scenario chances are profit taking will appear. When? It is now... with stochastics 'cutting from above' over the 80% line! 

From a mini EWA, I saw a mini wave 1 (day 2), mini wave 2 (day 3, touching 2.618x level) and a potential mini wave 3 (day 8)... yes a 2-3-8 fibonacci sequence in play?  

My Take >> Take profits first and re-enter later!

MSM-11jul11,advGET

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(c) ArifinLatif Consulting, 11jul11, 8:40am

How to Track a New IPO: The Case for MSM

Too early (not enough data) to get accurate pointers! Nevertheless, here are some of my analyses:

1. Stochastics on the high side, down from >80 to now at 68.8 (trending downwards!).
2. My own mini Elliot Wave Analysis (EWA) shows a mini wave 1, 2 and 3 completed...so  next move, a possible mini wave 4 (correction wave).
3. Wilder's Swing index signals a 'short sell' there last Friday!

My prognosis>> take profits first and re-enter when mini wave 4 unfolds. Happy trading guys & gals! 

Salam.

MSM-11jul11,MetaStock11